Everyone’s eyes are fixed on what Nitish Kumar will do next and what will be Lalu Prasad’s stand. The politics of Bihar has come to an interesting juncture in the fight between two strong socialists. It is established about Nitish that he leaves one post only when he has another post in his hands.
After separating from Lalu, Nitish has two options. He can form government with BJP. The second option is to dissolve the assembly and go for elections. However, this is less likely.
At the same time, it does not seem possible that Lalu Yadav will also lay down his arms so soon. RJD will make every possible effort to form the government. The reason for this is – Lalu’s party is the largest party in Bihar, second Assembly Speaker Awadh Bihari Chaudhary is from RJD.
However, to form the government, the MLAs of RJD, Congress, Left and AIMIM together are 116. The majority figure is 122. In this situation they need 6 more MLAs. Therefore, Lalu is offering the post of Deputy CM to the son of Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) patron Jitan Ram Manjhi.
RJD is the largest party with the numerical strength of 79 MLAs in 243 seats of Bihar Assembly. After this, BJP is at second place. It has 78 MLAs.
JDU has 45 MLAs and Congress has 19 MLAs. Left has 16 MLAs. One MLA, Sumit Kumar Singh, is an independent and AIMIM has one MLA, Akhtarul Iman.
We the party have four MLAs. BJP, HAM and AIMIM party are in opposition. The magic number is 122. If Nitish Kumar leaves Lalu Prasad and joins BJP, then he (JDU) will have 45, BJP will have 78, HAM party will have 4 and one independent. That means there will be 127 MLAs. On the other hand, RJD has a challenge as to how it reaches the figure of 122.
If 79 MLAs from RJD, 19 from Congress, 16 from Left, one independent, one from AIMIM and 4 from HAM party come together then RJD can muster the number of 120 MLAs to form the government.
Now the challenge is how RJD can form its government! Are all avenues closed for RJD? What options does Nitish Kumar have? Politics is considered a game of possibilities.
It is being discussed that unless big leaders of BJP give clearance, Nitish will not say with confidence about joining BJP. Nitish needs the support of some alliance or the other. If they want, they can either remain with the alliance of Congress, RJD and Left or be in the alliance with BJP and us.
JDU’s strength is not such that it should dare to go to the elections alone. A big option for Nitish Kumar could be that he remains with the alliance, whatever the case.
The question arises that then why is all this happening? The answer could be that Nitish Kumar wants to increase bargaining. Know, what else could be the way forward-
Nitish Kumar is busy saving the chair
The coming 48 hours are very difficult for the politics of Bihar. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad are laying the chessboard in their own way. Both are moving their pieces very thoughtfully.
The biggest thing with Nitish Kumar is that he cannot live without a chair. They do not leave the first chair until they get the second chair. Nitish takes any decision only after the talks are finalised. But this time Nitish is trapped in the political maze of Bihar, because Assembly Speaker Awadh Bihari Chaudhary belongs to RJD quota.
If some MLAs of JDU and BJP do cross voting in the House, then like the year 2000, Nitish Kumar may lose power. That’s why Nitish Kumar and BJP are brainstorming on many aspects. There is an aspect in this that Nitish and BJP can retain the post of Chief Minister by ousting Congress and Left MLAs, making them resign or making them ministers.
If Nitish Kumar is not successful in breaking these MLAs, then he can dissolve the Assembly and hold elections for the Assembly along with the Lok Sabha. In such a situation, he can remain the acting Chief Minister till the Lok Sabha elections. Nitish also has a way to reach Rajya Sabha in the Rajya Sabha elections to be held in April.
